TRUMP; CUATRO ADVERTENCIAS
(Enero 17, 2025)
No hay nada más odioso que alguien te diga: “Te lo dije”. Pero en el caso de Donald Trump hay tantas señales de advertencia que es imposible ignorarlas. Ante el inicio del segundo mandato de Trump, Estados Unidos y el mundo se preparan para lidiar con un gobernante muy poderoso, impredecible, egocéntrico, que a todo busca sacarle ventaja y que pretende expandir su esfera de influencia mucho más allá de sus fronteras.
Aquí hay cuatro advertencias.
Advertencia # 1. Este nuevo gobierno será más antiinmigrante que el primero. Cuando Trump anunció su candidatura presidencial en el 2015, ahí mismo en Nueva York, surgió la primera señal de genuina preocupación. Dijo, sin base ni evidencia, que los inmigrantes mexicanos eran “criminales” y “violadores”. Luego, tratando de matizar, dijo que “algunos, supongo, son buenas personas”.[i]
La realidad es totalmente distinta. La gran mayoría de los inmigrantes, indocumentados o legales, no son criminales ni violadores. Pagan impuestos, crean trabajos y benefician enormemente a la economía. De hecho, los ciudadanos estadounidenses son más propensos a cometer crímenes y a terminar en la cárcel que los inmigrantes. Pero eso no parece importarle a Trump.
En este segundo mandato ha prometido la más grande campaña de deportaciones en la historia de Estados Unidos y continúa con su intensa campaña para criminalizar a los inmigrantes. México sufrirá las consecuencias antes que cualquier otro país, obligándolo a recibir a todos los extranjeros expulsados de Estados Unidos. Las separaciones de familias serán una constante y, para muchos, se romperá la idea de que Estados Unidos es una nación que recibe y protege a los más vulnerables y necesitados del planeta.
Advertencia # 2. La democracia en Estados Unidos corre peligro. Es difícil pensar que una nación creada en principios democráticos desde 1776 pueda perder el rumbo. Pero así es.
Si Donald Trump no hubiera ganado la elección del 2024, muchos creen que nunca habría reconocido su derrota. Como nunca reconoció la del 2020.
Basta preguntarles a los principales colaboradores de Trump y pocos se atreverían a decir que Joe Biden ganó legítimamente en el 2020. El fiscal Jack Smith concluyó, en un reporte de 137 páginas[ii], que Trump hubiera sido encontrado culpable de conspirar para cambiar los resultados de esas elecciones. Pero el proceso se detuvo ante la imposibilidad de juzgar legalmente a Trump durante su segunda estancia en la Casa Blanca.
Además de esto, tras la brutal y sangrienta invasión del Capitolio el 6 de enero del 2021, Trump ha tratado de cambiar la narrativa y presentar a los insurrectos como “patriotas”. El verdadero peligro está en que Trump use los poderes de su nuevo gobierno para perseguir a sus enemigos políticos. La acumulación del poder de Trump -el ejecutivo, control de ambas cámaras del congreso y mayoría en la Corte Suprema- pondrán a prueba a la vieja democracia estadounidense.
Advertencia # 3. Estados Unidos podría convertirse en una oligarquía. Esta advertencia fue hecha por Joe Biden, unos días antes de dejar el poder. “Hoy se está formando una oligarquía de extrema riqueza, poder e influencia que literalmente amenaza toda nuestra democracia”, dijo el mandatario desde la Casa Blanca[iii]. Biden habló de un “complejo técnico-industrial” que “está hundiendo a los estadounidenses en una avalancha de desinformación”.
La expectativa de muchos empresarios es que les vaya mejor con la presidencia de Trump. Con menos burocracia, menos regulaciones y menos impuestos. Pero el viejo modelo de enriquecer a los más poderosos para que parte de sus ganancias se filtren a los más pobres
-trickle down economics, en inglés- nunca ha funcionado.
Advertencia # 4. Cuidado con un gobierno expansionista. No estamos en una época de imperios ni de invasiones. Pero los comentarios de Trump sugieren muy poco respeto por las fronteras de otros países. Quiere comprar Groenlandia y volver a controlar el canal de Panamá. (Ambos países ya han dicho que se oponen tajantemente a los planes de Trump.)
Y sus dos vecinos, México y Canadá, también temen a un Estados Unidos más intervencionista. Los canadienses han dejado muy claro que no tiene nada de chistoso decir, como lo ha sugerido Trump, que Canadá pudiera convertirse en el estado 51 de Estados Unidos[iv]. Y México se prepara para una guerra de aranceles con Estados Unidos y para la posibilidad de que el gobierno de Trump declare a los narcocarteles como “organizaciones terroristas”. Aún no está muy claro lo que eso podría significar pero México no quiere abrir la puerta a operaciones militares unilaterales de Estados Unidos en su territorio.
Desde luego que hay otras advertencias con el regreso de Trump al poder -sobre la negativa a creer que los humanos somos responsables del calentamiento global, sobre los ataques a la prensa independiente y sobre la necesidad de proteger la diversidad étnica y cultural del país- pero, por ahora, nos quedamos con estas cuatro por su impacto inmediato.
La conclusión es muy sencilla. Trump no será un presidente normal. No ha demostrado mucha consideración por los inmigrantes, la democracia y la soberanía de otros países. Y no hay nada que sugiera que va a cambiar en la Casa Blanca. Al contrario, el poder lo empujará a los extremos.
Ya estamos advertidos.
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ENGLISH VERSION
TRUMP: FOUR WARNINGS
January 17, 2025
There's nothing worse than someone who tells you, “I told you so.” But in the case of Donald Trump there are so many warning signs that it's impossible to ignore them. Before the start of his second term the United States and the world are already preparing to deal with a ruler who is very powerful, unpredictable and eccentric, who tries to take advantage of everything and extend his sphere of influence well beyond the frontiers.
Here are four warnings.
Warning No. 1 – His new administration will be more anti-immigrant than the first. When Trump announced his presidential candidacy in 2015, right there in New York, we saw the first sign that we should genuinely worry. He declared, without evidence, that Mexican immigrants are “criminals” and “rapists.” Then he tried to soften that. “Some, I suppose, are good people.”
The reality is totally different. The great majority of immigrants, whether undocumented or legal, are not criminals or rapists. They pay taxes, create jobs and significantly benefit the economy. In fact, US citizens are more likely to commit crimes and wind up in prison than immigrants. But Trump does not seem to care about that.
For this second term in office he has promised the biggest deportation campaign in the history of the United States, and continued his intense efforts to criminalize immigrants. Mexico will suffer the consequences before any other country, forcing it to accept everyone deported from the United States. Family separations will be constant and, for many, it will shatter the idea that the United States is a nation that receives and protects the most vulnerable and needy people in the planet.
Warning No. 2. – The US democracy is in danger. It is difficult to think that a nation enjoying a democratic system since 1776 can lose its way. But it's true. Many believe that if Donald Trump had not won the 2024 elections, he would have never accepted defeat. Just like he never admitted he lost in 2020.
Just ask some of Trump's main collaborators, and very few will dare say that Joe Biden legitimately won that election. Special Counsel Jack Smith concluded in his 137-page report that Trump would have been found guilty of conspiring to overturn the results of those elections. But the process was halted because it will be impossible to put Trump on trial during his second term in the White House.
What's more, after the brutal and bloody attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has tried to change the narrative and portray the insurrectionists as “patriots.” The real danger is that Trump will use the powers of his new administration to persecute political enemies. The accumulation of power in Trump's hands – the presidency, control of both chambers of Congress and a majority in the Supreme Court – will test this old US democracy.
Warning No. 3 – The United States could turn into an oligarchy. That warning was issued by Biden days before he left the White House. “Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy,” Biden said in a farewell speech from the White House. Biden spoke of a “tech-industrial complex” that is burying the US population “under an avalanche of misinformation and disinformation.”
Many business people expect they will do better during the Trump presidency. Less bureaucracy, fewer regulations and lower taxes. But the old model of allowing the few to become richer in the hope that part of their profits can filter down to the poor – trickle-down economics – has never worked.
Warning No. 4 – Be careful about an expansionist government. We are not in a time of empires or invasions. But Trump's comments suggest he has very little respect for the borders of other countries. He wants to buy Greenland and take back control of the Panama Canal. Both countries have already said they strongly oppose Trump's proposals.
And his two neighbors, Mexico and Canada, are also afraid of a more interventionist United States. Canadians have made it clear that there's nothing funny about Trump's suggestion that their country could become the 51st state. And Mexico is preparing for a tariff war with the United States and the possibility that Trump will declare the drug cartels as “narco-terrorists.” It's not clear what that could mean, but Mexico does not want to open the door to unilateral US military operations on its territory.
Of course, there are other reasons to worry about Trump's return to power: his refusal to believe humans are responsible for global warming, his attacks on the news media, and refusal to protect the ethnic and cultural diversity of the country. But for now, we'll stay with the four above because of their immediate impact.
The conclusion is very simple. Trump will not be a normal president. He has not shown much concern for immigrants, democracy or the sovereignty of other countries. And there's nothing to suggest he will change once in the White House. On the contrary, his power will push him to the extremes.
We have been warned.
Democracy is in for a shift, but I’m not counting it out yet. Three things need to happen over the next 2-yrs. 1) the Democrats need to smell the roses, or something stronger, and realize their base has shifted and rejoin them. Remember the GOP did this after losing to President Obama in ‘08 and there is literally a different party under that banner now. 2) the Republicans are going to get a reality check. As this administration unfurls its programs it will have unintended consequences on their own base. Let’s see how that plays out. 3) America itself has to refurbish itself. The only analogy I can think of is we’ve gotten out of shape. Many of us work hard with less than desirable results. The government is slow to respond, the separate of classes is growing and we are, as a society, becoming more narcissistic. We need we tighten our belts, bring our personal and government debt down and figure out how to communicate with each other again.
Me recuerda Mexico en los tiempos de Lopez Portillo (80's), con su negro Durazo (DOD) y todo. Esta película - Yo ya la vi.